BTC is in a parallel channel, bullish in a flag pattern. Based on this, the next impulsive move would be a approximately 20k (roughly height of the flagpole) one taking it to, depending on the point of breakout, approx 80k.

But does anyone really believe or expect this in this current economic climate (Europe in recession, US tech job losses?) 20k, really?

The answer mainly would lie in economic fundamentals, i.e. interest rates. If the Fed starts decreasing rates, which people are broadly expecting sometime this year, then the chances of the 20k impulse breakout are higher and the pattern will hold.

The next question then is how much would the rates have to fall to get such a large impulsive move and not just a fakeout?

This is largely impossible to forecast. Looking at the past, a near 40k move needed approx a 5% rate rise (in itself something that goes against the conventional wisdom of a climate if low rates are needed for crypto impulsive moves). Thus, it would be fair to say the fed would need around a min of 1.5% cut over the rest of the year to arrive a 20k rise in BTC

Keeping the rate the same will just most likely cause patern continuation until the prices have reached so low (around 50k) such that the flapole is no longer valid.

The way to trade this is two fold:

1. Swing trade upon your expectations of a rate cut. If you think one is imminent within the next 6 weeks, then now is a good enough time as any to ride the rollercoaster.
   
   
2. Margin trade (extremely risky): upon breakout of the pattern, with a 3 day filter for a fakeout, and on the back of a rate cut, enter a trade with a 3k stop loss and a 9k take profit.
   

The questions then that any trader/investor has to ask themselves is: do I think the fed will cut rates? If so, when? And how many times? And do I think all those cuts will be enough for new impulsive move of about 20k based on the current flagpole.

Personally, as multiple cuts will be needed, to hit 20k, and I'm not in the business of predicting whats in Powell's mind, I think waiting until there is a cut for a swing trade offers the best option.